Friday 24 July 2009 10:21:12 am

A common issue in peoples minds before to start their business !

The official methods are all lagging indicators, the train will have already left the station, by the time they are issued.

1) Check the length of the cigarette ends on the floor ( when people are feeling poor they smoke right down to the filter.) ( Neiderhoffer accurately called the turning of the Brazil market on this one alone. they were getting longer !)

2) Stand on a motorway bridge and count the number of car transporters per unit time.

3) Ask your local vet if he has noticed an increase in the number of fillings he is doing for the dog's teeth. ( when people have too much money in their pockets they feed their dogs with too rich food, leading to an increase in tooth decay.

4) The rates for the oldest proffesion start to increase

( Source Neiderhoffer.)

5) The white van index, for used panel vans will stop falling. ( source (NWD)

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Thursday 13 August 2009 6:39:57 pm

Good sentiment indicator Bonnie,

When lipstick sales go up the economy is down, quite like that one . It is rather like when your barber mentions the reverse yield gap it is time to get out of the market.
It is definitely not over yet. the best desciption of the 1930s down sing I have ever heard was that it was like being a bit player in an earrthquaquke movie, you could see the cracks apearing in the buildings and the roads but there was nothing you could do about it..

I think it is clear now that QE is not working out to good, we wil end up with Stagflation just like the 70s .

anyway Bonnie if you want to go down in history you have got to come up with a curve, or an index or a modulus

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